Game is filled with a bunch of pros, and me. Probably the best advice is for me to get up and find a different game, but I like the competition, and it helps prepare me for a bigger game that I sometimes play in that is a 3 blind game.

Villain is one of the better pros at the table, and on the tighter side. He balances ranges pretty well from what I can tell. Is not very sticky though when he senses strength. Hero is probably viewed as the worst player at the table, and probably a bit spazzy but on the nittier side preflop. Effective stack size is 2000

Preflop, Villain opens UTG to 60, hero flats mp 55, button calls rest fold.

Pot is 215

Flop is K52

Villain bets 125, hero calls
pot is 465

Turn is A

Villain bets 250, hero calls
pot is 965

River is K

Villain checks, hero bets 500, villain shoves

Easy fold? Easy call? Shrug call?

He's repping basically only hands that beat you (AA AK KK) and your range is capped well below that. This is the absolute top of your folding range so if you think he's capable of thinking this thru then call. I've leveled myself into calling in these spots many times and I see AA or whatever almost always.

Easy fold and you shouldn't be perceived as capped here at all. It's extremely common to coldcall AA KK AK in MP v EP.

Hero could definitely be perceived to flat AA/KK/AK some % of the time pre and therefore isn't perceived to be truly capped on the river.

You have to fold all your bluffs on the river so what hands do you call with?

Villain is risking $1565 to win $1465 so you have to call roughly half your betting range on the river to prevent him from bluffing you profitably with any 2.

So I guess if you are never bluffing the river, and you call most of your AK pre and like 1/3 of your KK/AA pre and only value bet boats+ I guess you can fold 55 and 22. Realistically though if you're bluffing the river at all, or value betting stuff like Kxs OTR you really shouldn't even be thinking about folding 55.

GTO wise, like Jarret says, if you don't bluff and only value bet things like KJs, KQs, along with 22, 55, AK(3 combos, discounted), and AA/KK(1.5 combos, discounted), then you have to call 55 or better to avoid being exploited. You can fold KJs, KQs, 22.

If you flat all your AK pre vs UTG open and never bluff this river, you can fold 55 some percentage of time.


In the live setting, I can hardly see many bluffs in V's range. If he balanced so well, he might turn some Ax into bluff. But it is pretty hard to choose appropriate amount of bluffs in this spot though. I'd recommend make an exploitable fold.

Wouldnt it be better to call with Kx?

yea. folding the number one best hand in your range prolly isnt a good idea

Can Villain ever play KQ for value that way? If yes, then it is argument enough for a call given the odds we are getting.
If our stacks were deeper, then I guess it would make it a fold.

Thinking about balancing in a once in 3 years kind of spot is beyond ridiculous.

@OP:

bet/f river is best if villain doesn`t overplay Kx here ever. Your read, that he is a bit spazzy makes me want to call though.

He thinks villain views OP as spazzy

Going by this description I think balancing our calls here is fine. I'm not looking to make an exploitable fold in this spot.

@OP Obviously if you think villain isn't bluffing here and probably doesn't play 22 like this then go ahead and fold. In reality maybe villain is never bluffing here.

I mean aside from the obvious fact that Kx < 22 & KQ whereas 55 > 22 & KQ (not sure he would ever x/r riv w/ KQ & 22 though) then yeah Kx removes a lot of his value shoves. However, consider that your Kx hands often are a Q, J, or T, which block villains potential bluffs.

if we fold this hand...a good pro whos playing 10/20 will know that we basically have no hands that can call a shove here and c/jam a bunch of stuff here. he can also be doing this for value w worse hands (kx) so i dont see how this is ever a fold

lp2016, EP vs MP ranges that play out like this would make it ludicrous for villain to c/r with worse for value. It's certainly a spot where blockers > absolute hand strength, and we should definitely be perceived to have some AK combos here, if not also KK and AA combos. Clearly, this can be a call vs someone aggro enough, but I just disagree with the notion that we're capped here. People coldcall AK in middle position more often than 3-bet it, and its one of our most likely perceived hands once we bet river.

First of all, how would a good pro know that we are bet/folding 55 here and then exploit us by x/jamming a ton of rivers?

Second, good pros are not barreling the A with a lone K like KQ, then x/jamming the river. That's literally the worst way a player could play a K.

All this GTO/balance & getting exploited if we fold to justify a call here is just a bunch of nonsense. It's a fold, and it's not even anywhere near close.

This. This spot will hardly ever come up, and you aren't playing enough hands with this specific opponent in these exact spots to get exploited. Suggesting that a call here is +EV is pretty terrible.

I dont think that saying oh yo ill just make exploitable folds because its live poker and we wont get enough hands in to worry about overfolding is a good move in hi stakes games vs pros who know how to take advantage of capped ranges

I can see how villain could be bluffing here. Here's how it would go.

Suppose he has QJs or JTs (not sure if these open pre, but maybe he can have other SCs as bluffs) so he bets flop as a c-bet, barrels turn with some equity, then gets to the river and decides to check give up.

Then he sees you bet half-pot and he looks at the board, a little frustrated inside. He may interpret your bet as weakish and then before folding, get an idea in his head: "Hey, there's an A an two Ks on this board, I opened early position, I can easily have those kind of cards in my hand, what if instead of just giving up I rip my stack in the middle and get him off his valuebet?"

I've done exactly this kind of thought process myself. So, don't fold 44, too high up in your range. I'm not convinced this is always the nuts.

That 250 on the turn is so nutted.

He checks and hopes you bet KQ/Kx/Ax on the river.

No one makes bluffs like this, AA/AK everytime.

fold. Kx is definitely a higher priority call. ranges are going to be pretty narrow by the time you even get to river given previous action and the fact hero is a rec who is fairly tight pre.


not really a good way to approach balance generally

Fold.

OP says that he's the worst player at the table (I have no idea if it is true or not, but it's an interesting assessment). In what universe does a tight pro bluff shove the river, on this run-out, against the perceived worst player at the table? It never happens in live poker, ever.

If the tight pro thinks that you are a fish/whale, do you think he's going to bluff shove on this board? Umm, no. He will assume that you will call with any Kx and maybe even Ax. This is AA/KK/AK 100% of the time. If you called and he showed up with worse, then your read is way off.

in the universe that ip is extremely capped and cant/shouldnt be putting in value bets on akk boards.
ip has rly the best hand he can have right here and we want to fold
but whatever who cares about ranges just use your lollive reads and hope you guess right!

Dude you have a srs boner problem for GTO if you think a call here is +EV given descriptions, reads, and overall general population tendencies

Yep +1

Especially when he is likely banking on us to often bet and usually call Kx, a pretty routine assumption when hero continued facing his cbet on K52r.

Yea not happening, and he'd obviously need the spot to have as much Kx available as possible.

The only way 55 is good is if reads were wrong and V regularly opens 34s/22 UTG.