Excellent post. Thx for doing it (twice)...

My first thought when V1 snap overcalled the flop c/r was that I was dead. Mentally I had already mucked. Then when V2 checked the brick turn I almost auto-pilot checked my **** equity hand. THEN immediately a light bulb went off and I was like "hey, a door has been opened, I can take this thing down by going HAM." Then a couple seconds later I was like "what do I actually rep in the way of value hands?" My firm read was that the only value hands I repped (that would bet turn) were all Qx <--> AA, and maybe two pair. So ~ 15 seconds and several thoughts/emotions after V2 checked turn, I bet 1640. I was pretty sure I would win right there (V1 would fold all draws/90% of his range not closing the action this deep and V2 would smirk-muck his goofy hand pretty quickly).

Sorry for the V1 V2 stuff. I agree it's pretty whack. Old habit that I'll try to break. And fml if I'm the one who started it way back when (I have a feeling I am).

He def has fps, but c/r/c in his spot with a good hand is terrible, and he's good.

I like it. You rep medium strength value hands better with this line than 3 betting flop imo. Assuming your emptying the clip on brick rivers against V1. WTF do you think V2 has here if he calls turn or if he double checkraises?

Do medium strength hands bet river tho??? Again, I expect V1 (errrr sb) to fold his draws anyways, so it's not too important.

If V2/bb c/r turn my head explodes as I snap fold. If he calls, more head explosion, but I guess he has a weak bluff-catcher.

Agree that SB has an extremely draw heavy range and you expect him to fold most of it to that sizing. However if he peels his range is probably combo draw heavy like redfin posted above. If you get a beautiful brick otr isn't a bluff necessary? I think you could go for thin value with AQ-AA otr, however repping well isn't necessary because SB simply isn't going to call off with a high card or weak 1 pair hand that he ends up with.

Clear bet vs these ranges.

The reasons to check flop are that your opponent's ranges are stronger than yours on this texture (if you're opening button as wide as I think you are). They're continuing a lot with both calls and semi-bluffs, we don't really want to barrel blank turns (assuming your image is the regular and these guys aren't braindead stiffs), we don't really want to call a x/r because we're frequently seeing only one more street with dirty outs, and the hands that our opponents fold on the flop to one bet probably fold turn to one bet.

Those are the boring standard reasons, now the fun stuff: It's nice to check back this flop with marginal draws because showing up with flushes and straights and things after you check flop once against these players gives you a lot more tools in the toolbox on later streets. All the turns you want to barrel when you bet flop are turns you can start to rep after a flop check once you show up with this hand and AJ in your flop check range.

Against these two specific player types, the player in the SB has the narrowest range and is most likely to fold one-pair hands when you put more chips in on a street than were in there to start (either raises or overbets) given his "old-school bi-polar" description, so you get to do sweet hand-reading things and get him to fold 90% of his range when you want him to fold, and call 80% of his range when you want him to call, just by tinkering with your sizing.

The player in the BB has a wide range with a bunch of garbage in it and probably wants to win the pot a lot once you check flop, he's pretty likely to put in multiple bets light when you improve, either calling with one-pair hands or bluffing with 0-pair hands.

I think everybody sucks and everybody is very used to seeing c-bet ranges structured a certain way and nobody has any clue how to adjust to decent check back ranges, because they're all just digging into their experiential bank and can't think for more than thirty seconds without getting a headache. This is pretty much a perfect hand to throw them a change-up with. You're not really thrilled with getting called or raised, which is happening a high % of the time, and getting folds is ok but you can pick less playable hands to try to get two folds with like 8T/A2/3s4s/etc.

I guess if you are very certain SB is going to call flop with all his Jx/Qx but fold river with it an an extremely exploitable rate when we bet, and never fold to two bets when we check, betting is probably better. I just assume he has all the combos of JQ/AQ/KQ but only AJ/KJ/JTs/J9s, and that trying to get him to fold KQ isn't a winning proposition here, unless we make a flush, in which case it's pretty much a slam dunk that he folds it.

This is a tough hand man but I am glad you posted it. I will try to sludge thru it and hopefully reach some kind of consensus.

My firm read was that the only value hands I repped (that would bet turn) were all Qx <--> AA, and maybe two pair.
Agree. AQ - AA (28 combos), probably will play it like this and consider betting a decent amount of river cards but not trying to go for stacks. While you may bet all Qx ott here, I think near tptk should be cutoff for potentially firing the river.

So ~ 15 seconds and several thoughts/emotions after V2 checked turn, I bet 1640.
So after more thought my comment about betting just under pot each street and get all in and represent a very polarized range is definitely incorrect (esp since their calling range is relatively inelastic, so sizing up for an extra 2-3k with ur bluffs is not optimal, so might as well bluff cheaper). As <AQ/KK/AA> does not gain the most ev by trying to play for stacks and instead could potentially cause you to get looked up lighter by looking to polarized. Its a better idea to look like AQ/KK/AA then the rare 2pr+. With your current range you want to represent, probably betting at very minimum $1500 and going from there is a good start (so yeah, i like sizing you choose a lot). That would mean $5200 pot going into the river with $6200 behind.


I was pretty sure I would win right there (V1 would fold all draws/90% of his range not closing the action this deep and V2 would smirk-muck his goofy hand pretty quickly).
Yeah absolutely. Its that 10% of the time that gets a little murky. Since there are an annoying small subsections of hand that make betting turn go from incredibly profitable to potentially negative ev if we were never allowed to fired the river with our specific hand when called.

Do medium strength hands bet river tho??
imo, they should. while it would not be a huge mistake to take a showdown, I think its likely the best hand a high % of time and conceivably could get called by worse if you size it correctly.


On some rivers, with our <AQ-AA> we probably do not want to valuebet AQ-AA or wont be given credit for value betting this range and heros line might look really suspect. Lets take a closer look at all possible river scenarios,

1) rivers
When you do get c/c and a club comes, Idk what to really tell you. But I am sure you can piece it together and its nice being the BTN.

2) We river a 6/7
When you do get c/c and we river a 6/7, we now beat some combo draws with clubs but still lose to Qx. It depends on who did the c/c ott as if it was SB I would assume he has less Qxcc then BB given action/reads and lean towards checking. While if BB you need to make a read on what exactly you think he is c/c you ott with and whether you should take a sd or get him off maybe a weirdly played Qx or Qxcc.

3) Pairs top Card, Q.
On a queen, that should narrow your value betting range a little and thus makes what you are representing even thinner.

4) Pairs any other card, 4-2-J
I think these are good rivers. And make AQ-AA a clear bet again.

5) 8/9/T
These are not fully blanks as some combo clubs either hit a straight and it just makes board look scarier. So it also looks less likely that you are going to valuebet.

6) K or A rivers
Kind of good for our perceived range as it could give us a few more nutted hands, but at same time it could potentially fill in a few club combos.

7) Any other river
I think does not change much or changes very little so you should feel pretty happy about valuebetting <KK/AA/AQ>

River sizing --- Sizing on the river if called. After you bet $1680 ott. On river pot is ~5500 with ~6600 behind so stacks are a little awkward but not all that crazy given our understanding of ranges. If I wanted to get called I would tend to think smaller sizing such as 1500-2500 would do trick. Maybe 2k if I wanted to get called by worse (if I had it) and 2500 with my bluffs seems like a good sizing option. If BB has something like Q X its probably advantageous to exploit-ability bet just a little more on river hoping he folds that.

Overall ---- So my gut is telling me if you had strategy of betting $1650/ firing 2.5k on most rivers you will def. be showing a profit and gaining some extra ev. There are some rivers that are clearly worse then others (9/8/Q/T) and make your value range way more narrow and should be noted. With that said, when we get to these rivers with 7 high and with respect to their overall range and what your specific holding is I think you can/should just close your eyes and bluff every-time and hope for the best. maybe concentrate hard on the bad rivers I mentioned and try to pick up something to sway your decision one way or the other but for the most part and after lots of thought -- I vote GO HAM. Not only should this prove to be a profitable bluffing spot, but I think its a spot most people will auto pilot and not give second thought to consider going ham so props. lmk if you have any thoughts.

v good/interesting post. I'm def going to re-read a few times and hopefully digest it fully over time. While I def have a pretty balanced/protected check back range in hu pots, I guess I don't really have one multiway (especially with the stronger range stuck in the middle), unless I'm super deep with a maniac or something. I typically like keeping initiative heading to the turn (multiway), I detest giving free cards, I like building pots to bluff something substantial at/value bet when I bink, and I always want the nuts and nut draws in my perceived range (in case I get the inclination to barrel off completely).

I do see the merit in having a good check back range though, and I def understand why this high rio/no sdv hand would be a great fit. Thx for the solid post, something to think about for sure.

Pretty much what NeverScaredB said. We don't take the pot down that often on the flop and we don't have a hand that plays particularly well when called or raised. By checking flop, we can also turn/river a disguised hand that is more likely to get paid than if we had bet-bet-bet into two people on QJ2cc3cX.

This does seem like a good spot to abuse capped ranges (after 1 or both villains call flop), but I'd rather do it with hands that can cooler people (nut clubs, combo draws, fat value hands), hands that can hit disguised monsters on the turn (mostly straight draws), and lower equity draws with some back door potential (34ss, A3ss).

Another good one. Sorry for making you go through all the hypotheticals. Of course river action is very dependent on the actual card and more importantly, who called turn...

SB called the 1640 (unexpected) and BB smirk-mucked (expected). SB has hands like KK and AQ and KQ and sometimes 2 pair that he plays like this pre and otf the first time around, though I was stone convinced his no-thought overcall of the flop c/r meant draw only. I also don't expect him to call turn hardly ever with a draw, so I messed up somewhere.

River (5380) QJ245. SB checks...

What do you think sb does with ATc or QTc on the flop the first time around?

Also is he smart enough to check here with A3c? I like the turn bet but its pretty ambitious to try and get him off a Q here given the board runout. Is he capable of being a hero with A5c?

I think check turn is fine but if I'm you being stuck would make the mission impossible theme too loud to ignore us 1800-2500 depending on how you have been betting and there are no give up cards on the river.

So sb just stacks off 200bb with basicly aq-? Obv this is purely dependant but this is an average at best spot for him to call with the range we give him and a better then average spot given our perceived range. Also if we are not betting this river we are better off checking turn regardless of our intent to give up, get value when we hit or possibly bluff river.

I dont think I agree with this. This is a pretty unique spot where we should get folds on the turn a lot based on reads and we have 7 high and an often dominated FD.

I would guess that he considers raising and then remembers he's up a bunch and then flats to protect his win. Then I guess he would flat the c/r as well, but at least consider making a move- his image is excellent for making moves and he knows both hero and bb can be light here.

On the turn I think he actually folds the ATcc a lot and maybe calls with the QT? If he wasn't winning so much/god running, it would be a different story.

He's capable of calling light/inducing/trapping/etc, but I honestly just don't think he's calling turn without top pair+, which means I was off somewhere.

edit: this may all sound ridiculous/convenient, but he shows me terrible folds all the time. He just check/folded QT on QTxK to V2 in a different hand, and I wasn't watching all the action but both the pot and the turn bet were modest. And he usually doesn't call with draws on the turn (which leads to a lot of rabbit hunting obv).

What was the turn timing like? Is he calling the Ac4c on the turn? 4c5c? Does he have Qc8c pre?

On the turn I think he actually folds the ATcc a lot and maybe calls with the QT? If he wasn't winning so much/god running, it would be a different story.

yikes if that's the case, then that changes a lot. So yeah, some of the reads here seem pretty conflicting. You made a read otf with his timing, and it may still be a good read and he called with weaker draws that you did/do not expect. Just because he called turn does not mean that we should give up hope and go into utter confused mode.

I don't expect ppl to fold fd+gs, fd+pair, fd+oesd on the turn. But if you trust your read that he is only calling mostly toppair+ ott I think you just acknowledge you made some bad assumptions on earlier streets and I would not be looking to bluff that range on this runout.

Which is why we should be betting this river.

Given DGAF's revised read (thinking that V would not usually call with a draw on the turn bet), it get's dicey. We heard about one hand where V folded 2 pair where that seemed weak tight (and DGAF alluded to other hands V folded that he would never have folded). But that one 2 pair hand was against the other guy (and since he saw the other hands those may also have been with the other guy). V may not necessarily give DGAF the same credit. As has been discussed DGAF actually has a pretty narrow value range here if the guy is doing any ranging at all. If the V did have only a draw calling the turn he'd have to lay it down to a river bet. But would he lay down any top pair hand against DGAF? I guess it could be worth trying a bet that looks like thin value, but I'd probably just give it up.

assuming he's still up 3-4k if he folds i think i jam but would give up vs a lot of people. This guy just seems like he's not that smart and probably calls too narrow otr in this spot.

disagree...if dgafs read is correct and villain only calls turn with made hands, which is a pretty small part of his range given flop action, then betting turn and giving up brick rivers seems like a reasonable option.

Yeah, basically the problem with this hand is that I had a stone read on the flop (the second time around) that sb was drawing, and that bb had given up (after he took the ever awesome c/r/c in the 3-way bloated pot when a brick comes line). So I like my bet on the turn. But then when sb called and I know he doesn't do that without sdv, I kinda just went braindead. The logical next step (if I'm playing good) is to figure out a river plan against all the Qx combos he might have once he checks. There's a lot in the middle and I can't win without betting obv, but is my line credible enough/my range strong enough to shove? Do I need to shove?

Like I said or maybe implied I don't think he's folding any "made hand" like a decent pair against you - a shove might have worked but my guess is it would be burning money. You can't win without betting for sure but sometimes you just can't win the pot no matter what you do and this one seemed like that kind of situation at least to me. I guess the good news is that clubs did not hit.