Quote:
Originally Posted by timmay28
Seems like calling ott is >>> raising
but why??
if J9 isn't in our raising range here, then we are basically playing this spot as a call with 100% of our range, which is highly exploitable. if you want to call turn bc we will fold out too many of his bad hands by raising, then you're saying this is a good bluff spot. if that's the case, then you still need to put some of the top of your range into your turn raising raising range to keep from overbluffing or getting into too many spots where vill can bet to induce and snap you off all the time.
a call has RIO here. there's no guarantee he's going to barrel off on the river when he misses (granted it may be more likely than an unknown). however, he's absolutely going to ship it when he hits. that means that a river A, diamond, and any card 6 and under are all very bad cards for us (K isn't great either). he's going to have a profitable shove on all these cards with his range (whether he has it or not) and we are going to be playing a guessing game.
this shove can get called by worse: he has all the combo draws (A3s, A4s, A5s, A9s, KQs, KTs, QTs, 65s, 64s, 54s); he has AA-QQ some non-zero percentage of the time; he also has all the AJ combos and will call with them some % of the time; he may also talk himself into a call with other JX hands.
think this is a pretty clear shove.