Game is playing very loose, with lots of hands going to showdown with heaps of chips in the middle. Hero has been fortunate so far, and has been stacking opponents like every session should be. My image is very LAGgy. Villain has been treading water, not too aggro, but fairly stationy. Villain has 850, I cover.
Preflop, folded to hero in HJ, I open to 40 with A
A
(isn't is so much prettier when you get both black aces).
Button calls (loose ABC player with about 600 behind), villain calls from the straddle, 3 to see the flop
Pot is 120
Flop is A
7
2
Checked around (I don't really see any reason to bet here)
Turn is 10
Checked to me, I bet 50, only villain calls. (I'm trying to get value from a 10 or 98 type of hand. If someone has a set, money will go in anyway. Not sure it's worth it to bet larger here).
pot is 220
River is 10
Villain leads out for 120
He has about 550 behind.
Give me arguments for making it small like 300, and arguments for shoving. I see merit in both. Obviously the hand he's repping is 10x. Does 10x call a push? Does he call with like K10 but fold 108, so we should make it 300 where he calls with all 10's?
Then think about my raising range. It pretty much consists of sets turned boats, K10, Q10, maybe J10, and that's about it for value hands. We probably need to have a few bluffs thrown in there. Maybe a couple of the 98's would work. Not sure how important GTO is in this spot though. The more bluffs we add in, the more I'm leaning towards making it 300 instead of all in so that it doesn't need to work as frequently, but maybe he also calls with his strong aces like AQ too much with making it 300.