Shoving turn is yeah, pritty bad.

actually i think gomuk was sayin gthat about my comment if you had a queen. It would be a call for sure, but I think vs most people you are splitting or beat, and he has a flush a lot. Once again, it would help to have some reads, ffs, and theres no excuse for not having them, seeing as you are both double stacked to start the hand, so its been a little while.

I can't see him having anything other than KQhh here.

Well, I mean, he's a 19/15 reg. Prolly a little more aggro than most. There have been times when I have shoved for value against him and have had him fold in spots where I thought there was no chance he was folding. But if I had a solid feel for his game, I probably wouldn't have posted the hand. I do think that if he gets to the river with air, he would be shoving 100%. The problem is that I think he wouldn't fire the turn without a pretty good amount of equity so I'm not sure how much air he can have. Also, some regs shove sets here which is awful, but they do it anyway. I'm not sure if he's one of those regs though. So I think the rivers a fold.

As for the turn, I feel like there's just no reason to shove. I have hearts and 2p hands owned and he's certainly not folding a better hand. The majority of the hands that I beat can't really call a shove and I still have a lot of equity vs sets and straights.

But like I said, it wouldn't really take much to convince me otherwise on any of this.

This is really the perfect hand given stacksizes & relative position to play it so many ways... as played it probably is a fold. Turn is a shove if you weren't drawing to the nuts but you are and your hand is much more disguised and can make much more by just calling. Shoving doesnt fold out anything except get called by better, eg. sets. Even if he has a made straight since we aren't going to fold, by calling we dont unnecessarily lose our stack with top2+nutFD if we miss but he'll find it very hard not to lose his when we hit one of our millions of outs. By calling you get villain's whole stack if flush comes because he's committed with the entire strong part of his range that he bet turn with... and your hand has showdown value even if flush doesnt come and he chooses to check river rather than bet which would most likely NOT be a bluff so it's a somewhat easy fold.

But to me the interesting part of the hand is pf & flop.. we're quite deep, what do we think of original pfraiser's game? Do we always call here pf? On the flop do we bet mandatorily? bet/call only? not c/call or just check it to disguise our hand since we're drawing to the nuts when it's deep? All very interesting points to consider..

yeah renton i was referring to your comment about folding a Q on river

fwiw I think he shoves his sets on the river a decent % of the time for thin value and because he would rather shove than check and be faced with a shove

as for shoving on the turn i think it is 100% standard and it all comes down to capitalization on dead money, which is making our opponent fold his equity share in the pot and collecting the dead money. i did a quick stove and came up with 42.3% equity against a range of [TcTd,TcTs,TdTs,6c6d,6c6s,6d6s,AcTc,AdTd,AsTs,KdQd, KhQh,QhJh]. After the turn bet there is now about $1000 in the pot with only $882 behind so even if we never get called by worse, a turn shove is going to be massively +EV.

edit: and i feel like alot of people make the mistake of thinking people's ranges are alot narrower than they are (ex. THEY CAN ONLY HAVE THIS HAND! I FOLD) when in practice this is never the case. who is to say that bogey isn't c/r the flop and double barreling the turn with a hand like 78c or who knows... he is certainly capable.

it's really really difficult for a turn shove to not be +EV given our actual hand, but i think that as soon as you start to decompose his range there's really no solid reason to shove the turn.

ie. looking at your range:

TT/66 = never folding, a shove can't possibly be better than calling turn
AcTc/AsTs = the one hand that shoving turn is "ok" against - if we call the turn it's hard to get paid off on several rivers. then again, that hand pays off every time on blank rivers, so shoving is "meh." also we actually might fold out this hand by shoving turn, which is bad because we have it super crushed. all in all, you can make a case for both shoving and calling turn against this particular hand IMO.
AdTd = this hand is not possible given that Td is on the board
KQ = since this hand is the nuts and is never folding, there can't possibly be value in a shove
QhJh = this hand is not possible (we have Jh)

i think you are making a mistake by looking at his range in its entirety and then saying a turn shove is good to "make him fold his equity share."

the reality is you don't possibly have enough FE to use this justification. and, the hands that you ARE folding out are mostly heart draws (folding out a hand that is drawing dead against you is never good), the rare semibluff with a weak draw (again, drawing dead). what else are you really folding out?

it's only dead money if he is sometimes folding hands that aren't drawing dead against you. if not, it's very LIVE money.

WTF

well, of course, that is absolutely right. however, it is a justification for shoving turn, and not a justification for shoving turn instead of calling turn.

calling is also massively +EV.

truuuuuu

ok yeah calling turn is better then shoving, i didnt really put enough thought into it i guess... just made my snap read and tried like hell to defend it haha

nh hurt, i dont mind being proven wrong

the internet has been solved!

I'm glad you brought your explanation to the table. It makes it seem closer to a shove than I originally thought.

results?