Hero just won a 9k pot the previous revolution by flopping the nuts UTG on 678cc. Other than that hand, hero was playing pretty snug and obviously now has a winning image.

Hero open 60 UTG with 55. utg+2 and MP call

MP - older Asian, ~5-6k effective. Played together for about an hour. Never seen open raising. Limp/calls roughly 25% of hands. Any significant bets he has shown down a strong hand.

Flop k85r. Hero bets 100, MP raises to 300. Hero calls.

Turn k85 3r, villain 550, hero tank for a few seconds and calls.

River k853 3. Hero?

- Can we lead river to extract from ak, aa? I'm afraid this player type can check these hands back. I'm sure he has most combos of AK by flatting pre. Not sure about AA.

- Good assumption that he could check back river?

- If leading, what size is best?

- Does villain actually play AK, AA this way on flop and turn if he flats pre?

- Villain ever lost his mind with some other hand?

Will post results/spoiler later.

I'd check river.

Results too soon!

Why? What range are you giving villain and how do you expect him to play it after we check?

Your hand looks a lot like Kx and V will most likely be value betting against that range since he seems to be ahead of it. Or he could have been semi-bluffing (unlikely considering his image). Either way, checking to induce seems like the best play.

If you lead river, what can you be bluffing with?

Sometimes when we check and he bets, we win two bets instead of one

EDIT

Why do I get the feeling you led here and got raised

Did we play flop and turn this way to trap or because we're not comfortable getting in 300 bb's with bottom set?

check minraise turn

Value/spazz/fold? I'm curious as I don't think I've ever seen a good player c/min raise but I can see merits here.

I agree w/ DGAF ainec here:

villain never has kings, meaning the best hand in his range is 88, but his range is crammed full of stuff we beat.

The river can slow down our action sometimes. (probably the weakest of all the arguments for minraising turn but im including it nonetheless)

By minraising turn we get a bit more money in before the last street. If read of villain is correct and villain will never fire river w/ TPTK say, we make that up w/ the turn raise while still having a card to come that "could improve villain's hand in his own eyes".

I'd also say that if we check minraise turn here, we then HAVE to lead the river - problem is i dont know how much, but by check min raising the turn we've increased the pot size and can bet a larger amount relative to what we'd be able to bet (or those rare cases check/call) had we not raised the turn.

Im curious - DGAF - what would be your river play?

[quick TL;dr: if villain say is calling a river lead for half pot only 50% of the time and x is the pot by the river: 50% of x+minraised turn is better than 50% of x]

88, some Kx, 67, 79, 64, some random stupid hands maybe.

I'd expect him to fire most of his air on the river, 88 obviously, and probably check back most of his Kx.

What worse value hands do you guys expect villain to bet/call turn and call river with?

look he's probably not betting any XK hands or Kx hands (if he has any KX where X < King). He probably only bets the river w/ sets and while i dont place a lot of faith in the profile after only 1 hour of play, i do think you would have seen some PF activity from the guy within an hour that would suggest he is going to run some sick bluff w/ 79/56/64 etc.

In other words, i'm pretty sure he plays the river closer to something: bets all sets, hardly ever bets missed draws. Never bets Kx.

I do think that he will call bets w/ all AK combos a decent % of the time, and will probably never bluff raise (and maybe never even raise 88 here).

Min raising the turn also would most likely turn his 88+ face up (& if he did this one time happen to cold call w/ KK here, but i hardly even want to give him 1 single full combo of KK in my estimates)

At this point its a algebra equation: when he fires river we lose vs the % of time we bet and he calls and we win and we bet and he calls and we lose.

Im pretty sure the latter has a higher expected value, especially if we min raise the turn making 1/2 pot in min raise scenario bigger than 1/2 pot w/o.


I'm having trouble following what info we do have with general expectation of that info - help me out some:
So what you're saying is whenever he bet/calls turn he has 88+?

But in some other hypothetical where we just call turn bet he will sometimes bluff w/ 56/79/64? From a guy who limp calls 25% of the time?

Something just doesnt add up in my head on that part of it - is there some other part of the argument you can elucidate further to solidify the above?

After betting turn, villain is not betting river unimproved with anything we beat except maybe K8 if the river is good for that hand and if he even has it pre. He is checking back AA and AK (and KQ) a lot. This is the bulk of his range imo. He is also never folding this stuff to a turn check-minraise and a reasonable river bet from a punk kid like dwarf invasion (lol). He also is probably never bluffing or overplaying something worse than 555 when we take this line, so we can easily fold if he 3bets turn or if he raises river. We are protected as hell by our utg open and our super strong line. We are young/wide enough though that we are getting paid.

It would probably be exploitable to lead here, but this doesn't seem like the type of player to take advantage of it.

I think 1100-1300 gets value out of Kx and AA, and if we get raised, I'd imagine we are looking at 88/KK a lot.

I wouldn't expect villain to bet Kx on this river (AA is easily in our range). As for his bluffs, 76s and some gutshots we miss value from, but from the information we have on villain, he seems to have it when he bets big so I'd discount a decent amount of pure air.

Edit: This villain definitely fits the type of player to call pre with AA/KK. I'd discount them, but I wouldn't rule them out.

An interesting thought: what would we do if we check and he overbet shoves river?

Check raise fold river, or check raise all in depending on sizes.. We get max value from AK, AA, KQ, K8 type hands, and can fold when if he jams because hes got us crushed if that happens. the 33 board pair makes is very pretty if he has AK, AA, even K8 type hands.