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Medium-High Stakes Full Ring Discussion of $400+ pot-limit and no-limit and 5/10 live texas hold'em full ring games, situations and strategies

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Old 06-09-2012, 03:44 PM   #1
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10/20 Bellagio river decision

Villain is mid-20s german online player, 2 hands of note:

1) OTB he flatted MP's open 200bb deep with J7ss then overcalled BB's 3b 3way, on the flop BB didnt cbet, MP with a pretty solid image bet 2/3 pot villain flats with flush draw & BB folded, turn a blank and he jammed over-pot after MP checked.

2) he cbet FD 2barreled turned flush and c/raised AI on the river that paired the board vs a tightish player that laid down nutflush only to see villain show Khi flush so I think he's capable of sick moves.

My image was not showing down many hands but pretty aggressive when in a hand however VPIP not looser than usual, all the hands that were shown I had the goods.. and villain's been avoiding me despite sitting to my left.

Effective stacks $4,800

Preflop Villain opens UTG to $70, 2 callers to me in SB with QQ and I make it $420, Villain calls after about a minute, 2 folds.

(Should I have just flatted? His opening range is pretty wide even from EP, I didnt want to turn what's likely the best hand into a setminer since otherwise vs 3 players OOP calling would = throwing away $70)

Flop ($1,000) QJT

Hero bets $500, Villain calls pretty quickly.

(here betsizing is open for debate.. as well as c/r.. I decided on 1/2pot hoping he'd raise...)

Turn ($2,000) A

Hero checks, Villain checks

River ($2,000) J

Hero bets $1,500, Villain shoves for $3,880 total..

Sure he's made sick moves before but this is the first time we have been in a big pot where he's shown any aggression vs me or put in this much money in a 7hr session...
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Old 06-09-2012, 04:25 PM   #2
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Re: 10/20 Bellagio river decision

Preflop if you can't 3bet without him pretty much instantly knowing what you have then you should probably move tables rather than flat.

Call river. Maybe not be ecstatic about it but there's no way you're folding a hand so absurdly strong to a not-even 3x river shove. I think people get so caught up in 'there's no way he doesn't have me beat here' that they don't realize how catastrophic it is to fold incorrectly compared to calling incorrectly.
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Old 06-09-2012, 04:37 PM   #3
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Re: 10/20 Bellagio river decision

well he has to know that my valuebetting range here is pretty narrow(as opposed to c/c which would include a few more hands) and there's not much FE against that range... that's part of my thinking at the time... will wait for more comments.

btw after the hand I also wondered if I should've led river smaller... to induce more bluffs irrespective of actual hand result.
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Old 06-09-2012, 04:44 PM   #4
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Re: 10/20 Bellagio river decision

For me the 3 bet preflop with queens is mandatory against this kind of V.

Since I usually CB about 2/3 with goods or crap I'd have made it a bit more on the flop, although CR is a valid alternative. If he called the 3 bet pre with AK he'll let you know on the flop I'd guess with the wet board. Since he just called the flop and checked back the turn hard to give him that hand or a flush. So you've got to think you are still good. I guess he might check back the royal flush but can't worry about just one combo like that.

On the river you only lose to a few combos - the royal, quads or a very weirdly played AA. And he can make this play with a couple of underfulls, sometimes a flush, and of course the occasional bluff. And while 4k is serious money it's not a huge amount in a 10-20 game.

I'm calling.
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Old 06-09-2012, 04:48 PM   #5
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Re: 10/20 Bellagio river decision

have to call here....feel like his range is AA,KJhh,AJ - I think he'd bet the royal on the turn but who knows.....either way I cant fold here.....sucks running into aces
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Old 06-09-2012, 06:15 PM   #6
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Don't really think kjhh is in his range pre... So that leaves jj and aa for value, he's already shown capable of cjammin rivers as bluffs ( aj would obvs be perfect for that, since he's blocking the nuts, but u prolly thought about this)

With all this info calling is better than folding imo and if he has its a situational perfect storm rather than just a cooler...
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Old 06-09-2012, 06:41 PM   #7
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Re: 10/20 Bellagio river decision

Vs the described villain I think this is a clear call and not even really close at all. I think he can do this w/ TT, a lot of flushes, and a lot of K's especially if he has the K of hearts. If he has JJ, AJ, AA, or KJ hearts than good for him.
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Old 06-09-2012, 06:46 PM   #8
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Re: 10/20 Bellagio river decision

Did you think villain c/r'd that Khi flush as a bluff or as value? Either way it's really spewy. Sounds like it was originally for value and then when he saw the Ahi fold he showed it as a bluff. That's probably enough to make this a crying call, although I don't see bluffs in villain's range considering your sizing, perceived range, and his turn check. He was showdown bound, so hopefully he spewed with TT. I think he'd play flop/turn differently with a royal.
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Old 06-09-2012, 06:53 PM   #9
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Re: 10/20 Bellagio river decision

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Spyutastic View Post
Vs the described villain I think this is a clear call and not even really close at all. I think he can do this w/ TT, a lot of flushes, and a lot of K's especially if he has the K of hearts. If he has JJ, AJ, AA, or KJ hearts than good for him.
There aren't any flushes villain can have unless he's a complete tard. Only one combo of AJ suited. He's also betting the turn with his K's if he's even remotely competent.
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Old 06-10-2012, 12:51 AM   #10
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Re: 10/20 Bellagio river decision

yeah what happened to half the posts??
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Old 06-10-2012, 01:25 AM   #11
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Re: 10/20 Bellagio river decision

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Spyutastic View Post
Vs the described villain I think this is a clear call and not even really close at all. I think he can do this w/ TT, a lot of flushes, and a lot of K's especially if he has the K of hearts. If he has JJ, AJ, AA, or KJ hearts than good for him.
uhhhh......we beat AJ.

villian either has the Kh or a J in his hand blocking the royal / quads. he also knows that it is unlikely for us to 3bet pre from the blinds with Jx. call river shove.
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Old 06-10-2012, 03:12 AM   #12
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Re: 10/20 Bellagio river decision

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Originally Posted by chilidog0425 View Post
uhhhh......we beat AJ.

villian either has the Kh or a J in his hand blocking the royal / quads. he also knows that it is unlikely for us to 3bet pre from the blinds with Jx. call river shove.
Oops sorry, my mistake. Anyways like I said it's a pretty easy call.
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Old 06-10-2012, 08:11 AM   #13
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Re: 10/20 Bellagio river decision

is villian the guy with the batman shirt?
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Old 06-10-2012, 01:17 PM   #14
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Re: 10/20 Bellagio river decision

I'd just Zeebo Theorem myself into calling... AINEC.

- we are less than 300BB deep
- we are in a 3balled pot
- we have a full house
- villain has done silly things

Oh, and...
- we have a full house
- we have a full house
- we have a full house

can't win if we fold, right?
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Old 06-11-2012, 01:49 PM   #15
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Re: 10/20 Bellagio river decision

This is an easy call and even more so given the K high flush hand you described villain played. He can have lots of worse hands for value including a boatload of AJ.
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