Table is 6 or 7 handed. Villain's a young Asian guy, has been opening a lot, usually to $40-50. Seems like an ok player, kinda loose and spazzy in spots (he's been 3betting from the blinds about 20-25% of the time), but is definitely capable of folding hands given enough pressure. Villain knows hero is capable of bluffing, but hasn't seen hero get too out of line anytime recently.

Villain (UTG/$3k) - Raises to $30. LP calls, SB folds, hero (~$2200) calls with A6hh from BB.

Flop ($100) - AsQh7c. Checks to villain who bets $50. Folds. Hero calls.
Turn ($200) - 4s. Hero checks. Villain bets $80. At this point, I feel like villain has A8-AT a ton of the time (given preflop and post flop action - I've seen him check back small aces in other spots, and I think he bets more with bigger hands). Hero raises to $310, feeling like I can get villain to lay down these hands. Villain tanks for about 30 seconds and calls, seems very unconfident.

What river cards are you continuing with and how much???

Probably bricks 2-3,5-T. I might barrel a king as well.

If he has TPMK that usually checks behind but is new getting blown off his hand betting like 600-675 on a blank is gonna max our FE.

C/r turn smaller is more credible. Follow through on almost all rivers, c/r a 7 or 4, c/evaluate an A.

FPS IMO. Fold turn, if you think he's c/ing back a lot of aces then his range is even stronger than you think and the range of hands you're trying to get him off is the bottom of it. If you think he's got some bluffs, then just call down. But this is bad IMO.

Not sure I agree with this. Unless villain is a great hollywooder (AQ+), I think he has AK, AJ, AT here a lot (especially after he tank/calls for 30 seconds) and will more than likely lay that range down to a sizeable river bet. So I barrell most rivers here and like the turn cr.

Yeah, I saw what was probably one of the best river cards - the 3s (bringing in backdoor spades). And I... pussied out. I checked. Absolutely horrible, I know... He didn't take to long to check back A8-suited. One of my biggest leaks I think is not following through in good river situations, recalling those big hero calls someone once made against me or the times I ran into a slowplayed monster. Or in this case, the chance that he turned a draw and backed into it. In reality, I don't think he ever has that draw with his turn sizing. But I could, I guess.

In retrospect, I think the only reason for him to call with A8 here is that he thinks maybe I'm semibluffing Qx or 7x of spades (what else could he possibly beat?). So the question is, if he thinks I'm FOS on the turn, does he change his mind often enough when a complete brick peels and I bet large on the river? Should I maybe bet smallish on the river to make it look less bluffy, like $450? Or do you always expect more fold equity with larger bets?

Bet river at least 2/3 pot, betting 1/2 pot is retarded if you are trying to get him to fold top pair unless you are leveling a reg (you're not).

Preflop, I think fold > raise > call.

As played, on the flop, I think call > fold > raise.

As played, on the turn, I think fold > call > raise.

After villain calls on the turn, I think his range is quite dense with AQ and better. If you fire again, it should be because you think he's capable of laying down AQ (probably not).

As played, on blank rivers, I think check > bet. If I did bet, I'd bet large, as we're repping exactly a set of sevens here. $760.

I am completely failing to see why you think this is a good spot for a bluff. If the only justification you can come up with is "villain seems capable of folding" and "he looks uncomfortable," then you're in pretty bad shape.

#2

Nonetheless, you decided to c/raise the turn and, eventually, pussied out on the river. What were your thougts ingame before you decided to c/raise? I sincerely hope, your thoughts were NOT sth along the line of: "If i c/r, he should fold A8s", but rather: "If I c/r and he does not fold, I can barrel some river cards to make him fold A8 etc."

See where I am going? If you had a plan on the turn, not only for the turn but for the river also, please follow your plan, cause a turn c/raise alone is totally -EV!

Think a few streets/steps ahead before playing fancy at NL1k+

Don't beat yourself up too bad. I do this in the moment as well. It is so much easier to anaylze a hand when $0 is on the line then when you have to grab your nuts and fire the river shell. It is something that I need to work on as well....I have trouble transitioning strategy to actual action at the table (kind of like from the practice tee to the round).

The key for me would have been the read on the turn that he was crapping his pants calling the remaining $230. You read him as weak and were dead on...so I don't think he thought you were FOS on the turn. My guess is he was hoping that you would check behind most of your range and he could get to showdown. In this spot, I think $450 would have worked fine but in a vaccuum you want to size this just as you would a solid value bet in this spot, so whatever he would interpret from you as that is the best amount.

Totally sucks that he had A8 too....I might have had to take a walk after not firing and seeing that tabled. Dirty....

Preflop, I didn't think AJ+ was in his range given his $30 raise when $40-$50 was his norm. Flop, I think his range remains pretty wide as he's been cbetting half pot with a ton of hands. Turn, I really felt like it was A8-AT (and sometimes, but rarely, smaller aces) because his tendency was to bet a lot with big hands and bluffs, and smaller with his weaker made hands. Especially on an ace-high flop, I think he's going for a lot of value if he did have anything stronger than AT. My turn read proved to be right here. River is where I screwed up.