Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz
And do what on the turn surviva?
Call some, fold some. Some things to keep in mind:
1) There are 15 turn cards that are pretty good for us. Those 15 cards also happen to overlap brilliantly with the best scare cards for villain to barrel. This makes this a better bluff catching hand than, say, 55 which doesn't beat a whole lot more hands than AQ does anyway. This particular hand is like in the pantheon of nut bluff catchers on this board.
2) It's perfectly fine to have a folding range on the turn. With each bet, your range should narrow more and more, so folding this hand to more action should only be a problem if you have a huge folding range on the turn because you're like x/c'ing flop with JTdd, 33-55, 2x, etc. Which might be the case on a given turn card, which might mean we should call down some, but if I'm worried about folding too much on future streets, again, I'd sooner fold 33-55 OTF than this hand.
Not really considering folding either of those, though, because I feel comfortable making decisions with marginal hands OOP without initiative. That might not apply to everyone. In which case, be more inclined to fold flop with small pairs, be more inclined to 3! AQo pre, etc.
3) This guy probably sucks at poker. If he somehow manages to have like the top 20% of his range AND is one of those very rare MAWGs who is capable of vbetting A7/88-TT for multiple streets once an overcard hits, then yeah, he'll earn some money off of us here. Even when he has QQ+, I expect this type of player to split his bet sizing really stupidly and bet a size that tries to keep you on the line, and then when he has air, he'll bet a size that tries to blow you off a marginal hand.
I think this flop sizing on this type of board with obvious flush and straight draws out there is going to be really heavy on either bull**** or very meh made hands (either protecting their equity against overcards or going for a thin value bet). Since the meh hands are unlikely to continue value betting on overcards, his range is probably gonna get absurdly unbalanced toward air, so based on feel/sizing/etc, we can find some really exploitative calls.
Even if you're not comfortable with trying to own someone with A-high when you're shot taking, though, you're not obligated to call all the way down when the board whiffs us.
Last edited by surviva316; 01-14-2016 at 12:48 PM.