Quote:
Originally Posted by LETIGRA
Oh hey dude. Yeah of course I know you. Also if i'm up on you a little maybe player to player variance dont take it personal. And ptr is always messing up my stuff. i'm up 7k this year on merge. not good but okay for small stakes.
i dont take notes on players i just memorize them while at the tables. In your example I would make an abstract yet memorable link to a penguin for any notes. You are really good. A little wild is my note. Some fance play syndrome but that makes sense knowing some of your opinions now on me.
Thanks for your reply. A lot of this went over my head and is too deep for me. My studying is basically playing cepheus straight up then writing down any interesting show downs. SPecifically if he plays any hand different than me on any street ill take the 60 second time bank to write hh down. Then i will study notables while walking on incline treadmill.
On hand 1 Im okay with 3bets sometimes. I went thru a stage on bovada when i 3 bet any two suited 4 or higher out of position headsup
I have problem with river. I feel i am the one free rolling cepheus. it knows i can play the board and call 100% so why bet. It's gonna get punished any time i have a wire except 22. If i have 77 i will raise and he will be forced to eat it.
In hand 2 i dont want to click back any two pair especially bottom two as they get counterfeited so often on river and i need to charge if thats gonna happen. cepheus doesnt have to make it 3 if theres a check raise. again thanks for your reply and i will have to think about your comments for a couple days before i can respond but if you think i should bet 2nd pair top klicker all three streets in hand 3 i should surely bet 2 pair in hand 2. Its tough to make 2 pair. I'm betting. want to know what's more disturbing? Cepheus has done this to me like 10 times in AND out of position.
3) it just seems so aggresive. i know 2nd pair top kicker is a favorite in heads up but on the scariest boards i try to click back once. maybe induce a bluff from a 1 card flush draw brick.
here's one since you replied so quickly to me with so few posts
cepheus is out of position with 33
of course he 3 bets which makes me want to rip my hair out. prolly why he does it.
Obvious flop bet on 725 i call
turn 725Q, there is no flush draw available. it bets.
river 725Q8
check check.
now here i like to check the turn. my thinking is there is 4 bigbets in the pot and if i check call twice i only have to be good 2/8 times. plus i could hit set 5%.
im not good at the query tool but when he bets the turn do you think it is gonna just eat the raise or fold? 3 bets in two streets is a lot to eat on this hand for such a baby wire.
thanks dude hope youre killing it on carbon.
Haha, never personal. Heck, most of the guys on there I actually actively chat with at the tables are the ones who give me problems. And of course the friendly fish. Obviously still think you could barrel turn more, but you were a winner in the circus games for sure.
In Hand 1, I think based on your particular, cautious style, that yes you may be in the freeroll spot. I personally would raise 77 on that turn and expect to get called down by worse frequently (and rarely 3 bet). And as you correctly bring up, if you arrive at the river w/ 77, you're raising for sure. I think for around 90% of HU opponents, though, they have the board.
And remember, Cepheus is not trying to exploit your tendencies. It's playing a tough, GTO-based style that you simply can't beat (because you will make mistakes, you are human after all). Against your typical online goober, you'd never not bet bottom two, because they have all sorts of crap that can call you (weak Aces, Jx, gutshots, they may even call with like 64 totally dead). But Cepheus is assuming you're a competent opponent who won't mindlessly pay off three barrels on this texture (as you should be pretty strong when you check call this flop). So by checking behind, Cepheus often gets 2 bets in anyway (via 2 bets on the river v 1 and 1). In fact, Cepheus checks this hand behind 93% of the time! Moreover, it makes his river raising range both stronger and less polarized if he can include this hand within it, meaning you can't make an exploitative bet/call with a hand like A3 in a spot where his raise is spew-heavy. I know I've run into guys w/ wildly polarized raises from weak ranges, only to turbo call them down w/ A hi or K hi and be good. Against Cepheus, i can't do that because it makes plays like this. Essentially, it's always looking to be able to take any line on any card. A great example of this was live was at the end of the $10k LHE event where Jesse Martin xb Q6 on a QTx flop against Ben Yu (Professor Ben on here) planning to raise turn. On the surface it looks FPS, but keeping in mind hands that WANT to check here (like K8, 55, etc), it means that these hands receive protection from the presence of strong hands.
Once again, maybe stylistically, checking the turn w/ a hand like KQ on AK6
-3 board is appropriate for you, as you're reasonably tight (so betting twice on this texture makes any hand worse than an Ace uneasy). But just remember your range when you check behind. If you're checking back hands like A5, KQ, etc, there's not a lot of incentive to bluff (villain should expect to be called quite a lot, and he needs his bluff to work 25% of the time to be profitable when betting into a 3 BB pot), so I've a feeling that when you call the river, you'll be losing a lot (and against an opponent who notices the strength of your xb range, some of your surface snap calls, like a KQ, may not even be profitable). I'd much rather xb the turn w/ a dicier King on this board, like a K5, when I could easily be valuetowning myself against a weakly played Ace. Moreover, I think the mistake most online players make is continuing too far w/ a weak hand that doesn't really stand to improve, making bet-bet-check a better exploitative alternative than bet-check-call if bet into/bet if checked to. For example, if I was playing some of the weaker players at 2-4 (you know a few examples from our games), I would never think of checking the turn w/ KQ, as most of them will not punish me w/ Ax and are so nutted when they do raise, that I can just snap fold. But they'll call me with such crappy hands as 86, 7
5
, weaker Kings, and it'd be criminal to let these hands catch up.
Now, onto 33 hand:
I'm actually shocked Cepheus is so aggro preflop w/ his pocket pairs. I would think it'd be more concerned with its weakness on raggedy boards w/out holding those back a bit. However they stand to have positive value v any opening range, and Cepheus is smart enough to be able to navigate this hand OOP on all sorts of textures to maximization. I'm a human and I can't, so I just call and hope to play a small pot when I don't hit a 3.
Turn is close actually. Remember that with any two non-paired cards, you don't have a pair on this flop 67.5% of the time. Even when you do have a pair, it's occasionally a 2, so Cepheus still leads hands like that. I assume you don't have a 4 bet range (I don't HUHU, unless my opponent is excessively 3 betting, in which I'd adjust by 4 betting premiums and a selection of different hands depending on tendencies postflop).
Surprisingly, Cepheus checks this flop 14% of the time or so. It's somewhat understandable why; this kind of low board texture hits you rather well. So Cepheus should be checking sometimes, rather than just getting itself raised constantly. 33 is likely included as an occasional check so that it's checking things that aren't whiffed overs. Unsurprising that it bets way more than it checks.
Turn, I think once you call flop, is actually somewhat of a trivial bet. As I mentioned before, you'll not have a pair 67.5% of the time. Say you've an open range of 85% of hands (1,127 combos w/ all 78 pocket pairs). You call 100% and Cepheus bets the flop. Let's simplify and assume you never raise this texture (a reasonable strategy). You have 55 pocket pairs on the flop that aren't sets, 9 that are, and the cards on board have only brought your non-pocket pair distribution down to 900 or so. So getting 7:1, you'll be folding maybe 120 combos of hands? So you still don't have a pair a good deal more often than you do, and 33 even beats some pair combos. You obviously know the two primary reasons to bet:
1) To get a better hand to fold (this is never happening on this board against anyone but the granddaddy of all nits)
2) To get a worse hand to call (2x, Ax, Kx, 98).
There's a third one that isn't mentioned because it's often misused, but it's important still
3) To deny people their equity share).
If you peeled this flop w/ a hand like T9, K4, JT, etc, this turn bet presents an ugly spot. You're getting 5:1 on a call and you possibly have the equity to make the call versus your opponent's range of hands (you only have to win 16.7% of the time for the call to be profitable, and maybe less as you're in position). But you could also be dead and be in a nasty RIO spot, so you fold. 33 really doesn't mind getting you to fold JT here, and it really hates giving up a freebie. I think 33 is a solid bet/call against a similarly balanced opponent, and Cepheus agrees (it bets turn 80% of the time and calls a raise 100%).
Now remember, 3 doesn't mean you should just barrel turn all willy nilly w/ KJ so that T9 can't "catch up", as 1 supersedes it. But in general, when you've a close spot, I think you should be betting until given a reason not to (big one being "opponent bluffs too often when checked to").