lim cash - monster draw in position - Heads Up Poker

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lim cash - monster draw in position

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03-03-2008 , 06:42 AM

efficacy

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 3,483

Villain is good, well known 2+2er (yes, my table selection sucks). He is 3-betting preflop at around 27%. My opening range is about 90%.

Poker Stars $10/$20 Limit Hold'em - 2 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

Pre Flop: Hero is BTN/SB with 7

Hero raises, BB 3-bets, Hero calls

Flop: (6 SB) 4

(2 players)
BB bets, Hero calls

Turn: (4 BB) 5

(2 players)
BB bets, Hero raises, BB 3-bets

Which line maximizes EV?

I think our options are:

1) call 3-bet, fold river UI
2) call 3-bet, raise any river
3) Cap turn, bet any river when checked to
4) Cap turn, fold to river donk UI
5) Cap turn, raise river donk (UI or with made hand)

03-03-2008 , 06:54 AM

efficacy

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 3,483

From my notes, I have him 3-betting preflop with the following hands:

J7o
A5s
KQs
K8o
A6o

I think that many heads up players have fluid and discontinuous 3-betting ranges (i.e. that range changes depending on the flow of the match, and a 27% range doesn't mean the TOP 27%, it might mean the top 20% + a random 7% spattering of suited connectors or random trash).

Is there any good way to deal with this mathematically when trying to solve a hand?

03-03-2008 , 07:07 AM

efficacy

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 3,483

One additional read for the river - villain's favorite play is to c/r the goods on the river, either as a sexy, or after calling on the turn.

03-03-2008 , 12:10 PM

jay_shark

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 3,655

Quote:

Originally Posted by efficacy

I think that many heads up players have fluid and discontinuous 3-betting ranges (i.e. that range changes depending on the flow of the match, and a 27% range doesn't mean the TOP 27%, it might mean the top 20% + a random 7% spattering of suited connectors or random trash).

Is there any good way to deal with this mathematically when trying to solve a hand?

I have a good method that works here.

If you guess that your opponent's 3 betting range is the top 27% of hands , then his range consists of hands that may be consistent with someone's opening requirements at a 4-handed table. I get this from noticing that 27% is close to 1/4=25%

If a player raises with the top 33% of hands , then this is consistent with what a player may raise otb , etc.

03-03-2008 , 12:17 PM

jba

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 9,666

almost always #1 for me, and occasionally #3 if this is a common draw line for him. I think #3 looks most like my monster line, and it's the cheapest bluff in this situation.

03-03-2008 , 12:51 PM

jay_shark

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 3,655

If you have enough fold equity, then it's possible for #3 or 4 to be more profitable. Without any fold equity , then you should clearly pick option #1.

You have a good 15 outs , which makes the probability of you hitting 15/46 which is about a third of the time. If your opponent folds more than 1/6 of the time , then choice 3 may be better for you.

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