Hate to come off as a total d-bag here, since you are very helpful on here, but we don't have enough information to disqualify this investment.

What are his expectations as to growth? How much is he willing to pay? How much (not sure what the English term is) equity is he looking to spend?

I know the LV real estate market, and every other market in LV, is in the toilet know, but things change. When they change it's nice to be in position to make moves.

the change, it's the rate of change we need to be looking at... 2% per annum when the country might be growing at 5-8% per annum really isn't a great "investment"... and the stock market is going to do better than that.

if he said he wanted a condo in which to vacation, then yes... there are great deals to be had. when you add the statement, "investment", I need to qualify that shyte.

I just bought a new house last year, and I really dont consider it an investment... however I need to live somewhere, and there is growth coming in the next decade or so... so hopefully you get the picture.

Condos are not so good because on the low end, many are just crappy apartments that were "converted" during the boom. Lawsuits were brought and the condo status of many is up in the air, so banks don't want to lend on them. On the high end, like Panorama, the HOA fees are outrageous.

Yes, but I would rather have money placed in real estate rather than the bank (low interest rates where I'm from) or the stock market. But, that is, if I had the money at hand, not if I would have to loan majority of the purchase price.

Anybody know what the HOA fee is right now at Panorama?

http://lmgtfy.com/?q=hoa+fees+panorama

Looks like 53cents Per interior sqft, from what I can see online. It will destroy rental yield!

There are great investments here in Vegas but highrise is difficult to make work even at today's huge discounts from peak due to the HOA's

If you want high rental yield, look into 3br/2ba properties < $80k

Capital growth is another matter and anyone's guess as to where the market will be in 5-10 years.

Growth begets growth, and decline begets decline. Vegas can't rely on tourist dollars anymore. People need a reason to move here. **** needs to be built here in order for the economy to get back on its feet.

2011 was the 2nd biggest tourism year ever for Las Vegas.

Exactly. 2011 was almost a record year for visitor numbers yet gaming revenue was nowhere near that.

More importantly, population growth plateaued in 2007.

There is no rule that says the housing market has to recover. If you're looking for capital growth, you cannot just assume it will happen because house prices are very low from a historical perspective.

We can't just pray that prices will return to / exceed those of 5-years ago. It makes more sense to look at current data. We need to try to determine what will happen and why, i.e. what will drive recovery and growth. There's nothing wrong with looking back at what drove growth in the past. Using graphs and drawing lines and conclusions is risky business imo. It's also just too easy to just rely on a newspaper's prediction that we've hit 'the bottom' and prices will recover by 2015.

An investor wouldn't need anything like a full recovery to make an impressive return. Properties are available for up to 75% from peak values, just a recovery to 50% of original value would offer 100% upside on current prices (basic breakdown but you see where I'm coming from).

If they did return to or exceed peak prices in 5-10 years this would be one of the best property investments in history 300-400%!..... (but I'm not expecting that especially on the 5 year time scale)

Peak level was insanity. I'd totally disregard it. The question is what's a reasonable level and how much rent can you collect while waiting and how much will rents change in the future. The one thing Vegas does have going for it is it's 4 hrs from very expensive LA.

IMO,

1) It's all about time horizon. Will you hold the property if things get even worse before they get better? 2) Can you afford to hold if you can't find a tenant or worse, get the wrong tenant for a 6 month or longer stretch? Unless you answer yes to both questions, I would counsel patience. That's called suitability. Just because there is an opportunity, that opportunity also carries risks. If you cannot tolerate those risks, you shouldn't play at that table. It's just like playing poker in too big a game for your bankroll. It may be a GREAT game, but if it busts you because of your weak bankroll or intolerance to volatility, then you shouldn't even sit down at that game. That's suitability.

Also, not much of a boat to miss. Interest rates are unlikely to spike up against you (much) in the near future. There is a ton of "shawdow supply" (people who would like to sell but are locked in) out there. The rental market remains sound but LV appears to be tied to the national discretionary spending economy for some reason (could be that LV lives on volitile gambling money!).

So unless you have a long time horizon, double your money by folding it over and putting it back in your pocket. OTOH, TEN years from now your purchase may look good.