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Old 07-13-2017, 01:52 PM   #751
kkcountry
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Quote:
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Playing with fire there sir. I'm terrified of ever betting less than the max and then getting a dealt royal, 4 awak, etc. I think I'd either kill myself or rage-smash the machine and get 86'd.
You still get the full pay on the 5 credits, you're just not paying for/getting multipliers if you play 5 credits/line, right?

That's how I go about finishing a UX session at least
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Old 07-13-2017, 01:55 PM   #752
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Re: Ongoing video poker "TR", how long will this last?

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Originally Posted by kkcountry View Post
You still get the full pay on the 5 credits, you're just not paying for/getting multipliers if you play 5 credits/line, right?

That's how I go about finishing a UX session at least
Yes. In theory your last push on a UX machine should be for 5, not 10 credits so you don't pay for multipliers you're not going to use. OTOH, if you're intending to keep playing, then playing for only 5 credits has the potential to generate the tilt scenario I'm envisioning. Something like dealt straight, then you hit deal again, and see a dealt royal...
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Old 07-13-2017, 02:08 PM   #753
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Re: Ongoing video poker "TR", how long will this last?

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Originally Posted by leon View Post
Theoretically the math on all draws should be the same regardless of the game. I know I've been through cold patches on all forms of games where it seems like you can't even make a full, let alone quads. The only thing I don't like about dreamcard are the cold patches- they SEEM worse bc you get premium draws so much more often (but pay for it). To get the draws over and over, yet blank them all... that's a soul crusher.
Yup. I don't really see any benefit to it. You pay a lot extra so I would rather just do something at minimal cost that still offers the occasional shot at multipliers and a big payday.
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Old 07-13-2017, 02:22 PM   #754
Stu Ungar
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Re: Ongoing video poker "TR", how long will this last?

Dreamcard sucks the money up more than any other variant, in my experience..
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Old 07-13-2017, 03:00 PM   #755
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Re: Ongoing video poker "TR", how long will this last?

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Originally Posted by pig4bill View Post
Yup. I don't really see any benefit to it. You pay a lot extra so I would rather just do something at minimal cost that still offers the occasional shot at multipliers and a big payday.
Sure, but dreamcard comes up about half the time, as opposed to 1 every 15 for the STP multiplier. And obviously for dreamcard it's a lot easier to be dealt trips in 4 cards than quads in 5. And 4 to a royal in 4 cards than a royal. You get what you pay for.
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Old 07-13-2017, 03:39 PM   #756
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Re: Ongoing video poker "TR", how long will this last?

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Originally Posted by Sooga View Post
Wait, are you claiming that FH's and quads occur less frequently at dreamcard than other games??

And just some quick math (I think it's right, but if it's not, it should be close) says that blanking out trips (no FH or quads) 15 times in a row happens about 18% of the time. So that's hardly super rare or anything.
not a math forum but it's not even in the same universe

you should improve on trips 2 out 13 times, so blanking 15 times in a row has some astronomical odds and obv never happened
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Old 07-13-2017, 04:09 PM   #757
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Re: Ongoing video poker "TR", how long will this last?

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Originally Posted by Alpha Fish View Post
not a math forum but it's not even in the same universe

you should improve on trips 2 out 13 times, so blanking 15 times in a row has some astronomical odds and obv never happened
Not sure if I'm being trolled or not...

If you're dealt trips, you're only about 1/16 to improve to a boat, and 1/24 to improve to quads. I don't know where you're getting this 2 out of 13 number from, but no, trips don't improve 2 out of 13 times. Trips improve on average about 1 out of every 10 times.
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Old 07-13-2017, 04:52 PM   #758
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Re: Ongoing video poker "TR", how long will this last?

well show the math then

Last edited by Alpha Fish; 07-13-2017 at 04:53 PM. Reason: blanking is obv not astronomical it's about 8%
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Old 07-13-2017, 05:19 PM   #759
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Re: Ongoing video poker "TR", how long will this last?

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well show the math then
Ok, well let's start with the full house:

You have trips, and you discarded presumably 2 non-matching cards. You want your next 2 cards to be a pair.

There are 10 ranks that have 4 cards each, of which you want two. So that's 10(4C2) pairs there.

Then there are 2 ranks that you threw away 1 each of, so that's 2(3C2) pairs there.

So there are 10(4C2) + 2(3C2) = 66 ways to get a full house.

Now onto the quads.

Out of the two cards you're drawing, you want 1 of them to be the same rank as your trips. There's only 1 of those cards remaining, and the other card can be literally any of the 46 cards remaining.

So that's just (1)(46) = 46 ways to make quads.

Making quads and making a full house are mutually exclusive, so that makes a total of 66+46=112 ways to improve trips.

There are 47C2 total possible draws, so your total probability of improving trips is: 112 / 47C2 ~= .103607...

Thus the probability of whiffing on 15 straight draws is just (1 - 0.103607)^15, or approximately 19.4%.

In my original 18% estimate I was rounding and I used a couple of wrong numbers, so I think this 19.4% is the correct answer. But in any case, it's definitely NOT 8%. Someone out there correct me if I'm wrong!

Last edited by Sooga; 07-13-2017 at 05:28 PM.
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Old 07-13-2017, 05:25 PM   #760
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Re: Ongoing video poker "TR", how long will this last?

yeah I just recounted myself and 66 boats is correct not sure how it added up to 2/13 the first time lol

you got a mechanical error there though it's 112/1081 not 102, so comes out to 19% and change

my bad /derail carry on
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Old 07-13-2017, 05:30 PM   #761
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Re: Ongoing video poker "TR", how long will this last?

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Originally Posted by Alpha Fish View Post
yeah I just recounted myself and 66 boats is correct not sure how it added up to 2/13 the first time lol

you got a mechanical error there though it's 112/1081 not 102, so comes out to 19% and change

my bad /derail carry on
Yea, I'm an idiot, I had 46+66=102, not 112. I fixed it.

Thread, sorry for the derail, please, resume your normal video pokering activities.
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Old 07-20-2017, 12:23 PM   #762
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Re: Ongoing video poker "TR", how long will this last?

Leon its 12 more days until Vegas for me, where are all the big hits ? What have you been doing ? You killing it at the local ?
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Old 07-20-2017, 12:34 PM   #763
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Re: Ongoing video poker "TR", how long will this last?

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Leon its 12 more days until Vegas for me, where are all the big hits ? What have you been doing ? You killing it at the local ?
Have fun out there! Have hardly played since I've been back in SD (purposefully); trying to preserve a roll for Vegas trips.
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