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Ongoing TR: Poker loser to profitable poker Ongoing TR: Poker loser to profitable poker

08-07-2014 , 02:12 AM
Quote:
It seems like quite a few of your line checks are on either marginal hands or marginal spots you've gotten yourself into. Figuring out what to do at that point is treating the symptoms and not the ailment.
yes quickest way to become profitable at llsnl (ie thread title ) is to become standard TAG and THEN branch out/explore alternate ranges/lines/moves. look into the "So you think your a TAG?" thread it has some great info
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08-07-2014 , 02:20 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by wheydacheese
yes quickest way to become profitable at llsnl (ie thread title ) is to become standard TAG and THEN branch out/explore alternate ranges/lines/moves. look into the "So you think your a TAG?" thread it has some great info
+1 lol Whey and I seem to come from the same school of poker upbringing
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08-07-2014 , 04:51 AM
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Originally Posted by wheydacheese
still hating the spot, but thx for running it this way ...(I might add though that KQo 'might' be an optimistic addition to their ranges, and i dont think the KJ is going in as played)
yea you're right. spots most likely pretty close to being 0EV. Can we confirm the c-bet on the flop was $50 into $30? I think I'd still be jamming on it but I would vomit first
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08-07-2014 , 07:30 AM
Hey Jim_Beam, I am enjoying you thread and wishing I was back in Vegas.

Can you share with us some of the work you are doing away from the table to improve through study. What does this look like through the week. Would like to know what you have found useful for your level in terms of books and videos. Also can you tell us a little bit of what you are working on in coaching, to the extent you and your coach are ok to share.
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08-07-2014 , 09:21 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by berry1
yea you're right. spots most likely pretty close to being 0EV.
No they're not. The net result of the flop action is to put $150 into what's about a $600 pot with the most pessimistic view being that you get maybe $180 back expectation-wise. Given OP's apparent win rate, that's like 6 hours of winnings in like 6 seconds. If you're going to pass there, you should pass on poker.

And those complaining about preflop are full of crap. Playing SC for 5% of the stacks behind the PFR is fine. 3-betting is questionable at best - it disguises your hand but narrows the implied odds too much. The disguise is of dubious value against people who probably read very poorly.
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08-07-2014 , 12:20 PM
Berry's analysis is good. Those saying you are fine because you have 12 outs = 48% are making two big assumptions:

1) all of your outs are live. Not true if villains have bigger FD where you have 3 outs = 12%.

2) your opponents have no redraws if you do hit your flush. Not true if anyone has a set. There is a 20% chance they make a FH so your equity is 80% of 48% or about 40%. Also, if a villain has a single higher spade they have 16% chance of getting a 4th spade and a better flush.

But the big thing is ranges.

I agree with others that you should not have flatted the flop bet. And playing SC with 15:1 is marginal. Not horrible, but I like it better the higher your connectors are.

Btw, when you give a HH including starting stacks and your reads of the opponents (tight, aggressive, on tilt or drunk, etc.).

Oh, and I prefer calling if you are drawing to the nut flush and semi-bluffing if you are drawing to a lower flush.
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08-07-2014 , 12:26 PM
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Originally Posted by JHair
80 feels too big to b/f imo
I'm sorry, but what's b/f?
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08-07-2014 , 12:40 PM
Client flaked again today so I'm playing poker again. I'm targeting the V today for daytime play. After that, I'm trying to set up a dinner with @wheydacheese and @natamus and I'm looking forward to that.
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08-07-2014 , 01:13 PM
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Originally Posted by Jim_Beam
I'm sorry, but what's b/f?
Bet/Fold, that is, bet and then fold if you get reraised.
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08-07-2014 , 02:23 PM
If you need a 4th for dinner, Im in.
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08-07-2014 , 02:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by p566
Berry's analysis is good. Those saying you are fine because you have 12 outs = 48% are making two big assumptions:

1) all of your outs are live. Not true if villains have bigger FD where you have 3 outs = 12%.

2) your opponents have no redraws if you do hit your flush. Not true if anyone has a set. There is a 20% chance they make a FH so your equity is 80% of 48% or about 40%. Also, if a villain has a single higher spade they have 16% chance of getting a 4th spade and a better flush.
We already did this math. He's fine against sets and fine against ranges that contain AsXs.

If you don't play here, don't play poker.
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08-07-2014 , 02:26 PM
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Originally Posted by kansaisupra
If you need a 4th for dinner, Im in.
Hell yeah. I think we are approaching 10 people. I'll pm you my phone
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08-07-2014 , 02:33 PM
No. "We" did not do this math. Someone posted poker stove outputs but I wanted Jim Beam to understand why the "you have 12 outs so it's 48%" was a vast over simplification.

Also, I made no recommendation about the call after the shove. I just explained how we get to the right math. As played, Berry's hand range does say call.
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08-07-2014 , 04:47 PM
When people refer to playing SCs with 15:1 does that mean he had 15 times the pre flop raise in his stack?

If so what kind of odds do you need before that call is decent?

Looking forward to the results of the hand!
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08-07-2014 , 05:31 PM
I think the general guideline for SC is 20:1.

And yes, effective stack was 15x the bet.
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08-07-2014 , 06:25 PM
I'm moving out there the 26th. I'm going to try and get in on some of these bro meals or whatever you guys have going on. Provided the 1/2 tourists are drunk enough over the weekend.
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08-07-2014 , 06:53 PM
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Originally Posted by Jim_Beam
I need a line check from today please. 1-3

I'm UTG with QQ, I make it $10
Villain in UTG +2 makes it $30
Fold back to me, I make it $50
Villain all-in for $200 total, I have him covered.
Next?
have a plan.

call pre and reevaluate post (unless prior reads in villain indicate otherwise)

usually action like this (call and 3b in EP) is indicative of a big hand

that being said id call in a 1/3 game here more often than not, people do weird **** too often at these stakes
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08-07-2014 , 06:54 PM
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Originally Posted by Jim_Beam
Thanks for the replies so far. I should have stated that the game was new, we had all just started and this was literally like the 6 or 7th hand. I did not have a read on him at all.
yep not folding QQ with this info
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08-07-2014 , 08:39 PM
I just got done riding a 3.5 hour roller-coaster of a session at V. At one point I was stuck for about $450 at 1/2 there. I couldn't leave the game though - there was one maniac that was playing just about every hand and had a huge stack in front of him (maybe $800-900). There was also a young kid there that just didn't play very well.

So even though I was stuck, I decided to stay and both the maniac and the kid paid me off and I made a kill of $325 - it's been a heck of an afternoon.
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08-07-2014 , 08:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jim_Beam
I just got done riding a 3.5 hour roller-coaster of a session at V. At one point I was stuck for about $450 at 1/2 there. I couldn't leave the game though - there was one maniac that was playing just about every hand and had a huge stack in front of him (maybe $800-900). There was also a young kid there that just didn't play very well.

So even though I was stuck, I decided to stay and both the maniac and the kid paid me off and I made a kill of $325 - it's been a heck of an afternoon.
Way to stick it out! That's a heck of a turnaround
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08-07-2014 , 08:54 PM
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Originally Posted by 4ThoseAbout2Chop
Way to stick it out! That's a heck of a turnaround
Thanks. Yeah it was quite a swing. I guess I'm a little too mentally tired to think about it in those terms but from my low point to cashing out is, what, approaching $1000? More? Less? That's not bad.
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08-07-2014 , 08:56 PM
Jim called off dinner tonight, I'm still down for it though, hit me up and post in my thread whoever is interested
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08-07-2014 , 09:00 PM
Did OP post what happened in the 67ss hand? Did I miss it somewhere?
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08-07-2014 , 09:01 PM
Here is great old 2p2 thread discussing suited connectors.

http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/show...fpart=all&vc=1

Worth the read imo.
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08-07-2014 , 09:02 PM
In the 6s7s hand, flatting the $50 on the flop is way worse than calling pre . You're not priced in to see one card and guy is likely shoving blank turns. If he shoves a spade turn, you aren't even that thrilled to call. Calling pre already pretty bad if you misplay spots like this where the flop hits you hard.

What is most problematic is that you don't put villain on a range for his overbet nor do any analysis and just auto flat.
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