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Old 08-18-2012, 11:29 AM   #256
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Re: Old Guy to Vegas

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Originally Posted by p0k3rhack3r View Post
If you think this is good play you're going broke pretty quick my friend. You only have a 4% advantage over cards as weak as JQo pre-flop. Any pair above yours and you have less than 17% advantage. And you risked 1/3 of your stack for a way less than 33% edge when flopping a set is about 7:1 against. Let me add that you have no implicit odds since MP is all in. No one else would call (live 1/2) for $61 unless they had AA or KK and they would try to raise you out so this is effectively an all in $180 play if there is a raise behind for a hand as weak as a pair of Ts.

You got lucky.

They weren't playing 1/2 that hand as there was a $5 straddle. MP shoved for only 12x the straddle after two limpers. 77-99 should be in his range, those hands are at least more likely than QJo. Also, against an overpair he is at least 18%, not less than 17%, imo.


Reraise all in > Call > Fold
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Old 08-18-2012, 11:30 AM   #257
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Re: Old Guy to Vegas

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No. Honestly the villain had showing some pretty bad hands at showdown. I put him on such a wide range here. AT+, KQ-KT, 22+

Stove gives me 58% equity against that range. Dropping some of the smaller hands pushes me to around 50%. Meh

Villain seemed like he was on tilt.

Still a questionable call right?
Yes. What are you going to do if someone behind you shoves for $200? Calling is the worst option. If this really is his range then you could maybe raise to isolate. Folding is best IMO, I think you can wait to find a better spot.
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Old 08-18-2012, 11:32 AM   #258
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Re: Old Guy to Vegas

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Oops typo. Villain shoved for $51 not $61.
The issue here is not $10. It's that you have no implicit odds to make more money after the call and you don't have any fold equity either.

You are not in a tournament. You're playing cash. IMHO: stay away from borderline calls. It's a recipe for too much variance and going broke quickly.
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Old 08-18-2012, 11:38 AM   #259
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Re: Old Guy to Vegas

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They weren't playing 1/2 that hand as there was a $5 straddle. MP shoved for only 12x the straddle after two limpers. 77-99 should be in his range, those hands are at least more likely than QJo. Also, against an overpair he is at least 18%, not less than 17%, imo.


Reraise all in > Call > Fold

First off, 1/2 live does offer straddling.

Second, any overpair to his TT he is a ~17% dog. Against any pair under TT he is ~83% ahead. That's what my original post (tries to) state. QJo is~ 43% chance to win over TT. That's only being ahead by ~7%.

Third, if he re-raises all in AA or KK will certainly call. So then he's definitely a dog. Don't forget in the CO PF he still has three Villains behind him that need to make a decision. Not out of the woods yet.

IMHO, best play is to fold and wait for a better spot. If this were a tourney that'd be different.

Last edited by p0k3rhack3r; 08-18-2012 at 11:44 AM.
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Old 08-18-2012, 11:42 AM   #260
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Re: Old Guy to Vegas

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Well I didn't say it was good play. I wanted feedback so that's why I posted the hand. What range would you give villain who seemed a little tilts and had showed down some marginal hands ?
I would need to sit at the table to see villain's play. maybe he had a few reads on other players that you thought were marginal but weren't in the context of the hands he was playing given the other players. Anyway a shove for $51 in MP is very strong and you're just better off waiting for a better spot to call/raise that kind of play.

With a $5 straddle and one caller it means he's willing to risk all of his chips for $13. $51 for $13 is not a good deal unless he really doesn't fear anyone else coming in.
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Old 08-18-2012, 11:49 AM   #261
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Quote:
Originally Posted by p0k3rhack3r View Post
First off, 1/2 live does offer straddling.

Second, any overpair to his TT he is a ~17% dog. Against any pair under TT he is ~83% ahead. That's what my original post (tries to) state. QJo is~ 43% chance to win over TT. That's only being ahead by ~7%.

Third, if he re-raises all in AA or KK will certainly call. So then he's definitely a dog. Don't forget in the CO PF he still has three Villains behind him that need to make a decision. Not out of the woods yet.

IMHO, best play is to fold and wait for a better spot. If this were a tourney that'd be different.
Actually because the BTN straddled the SB and BB had already acted. They just called the straddle for $5 so it's hard to put them on JJ+ or even AK. I was thinking I was ahead of their straddle calling range. Just had to fade the button who was last to act.
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Old 08-18-2012, 11:51 AM   #262
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Re: Old Guy to Vegas

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Actually because the BTN straddled the SB and BB had already acted. They just called the straddle for $5 so it's hard to put them on JJ+ or even AK. I was thinking I was ahead of their straddle calling range. Just had to fade the button who was last to act.
In AC only the UTG position can straddle, not the button. (Or if button can straddle then I have yet to see it happen in AC live.)

To modify the previous post it's still $51 for $15. And then you're paying $51 for $66. Not a great deal.

Last edited by p0k3rhack3r; 08-18-2012 at 11:57 AM.
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Old 08-18-2012, 12:38 PM   #263
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If you think this is good play you're going broke pretty quick my friend. You only have a 4% advantage over cards as weak as JQo pre-flop. Any pair above yours and you have less than 17% advantage. And you risked 1/3 of your stack for a way less than 33% edge when flopping a set is about 7:1 against. Let me add that you have no implicit odds since MP is all in. No one else would call (live 1/2) for $61 unless they had AA or KK and they would try to raise you out so this is effectively an all in $180 play if there is a raise behind for a hand as weak as a pair of Ts.

You got lucky.
Do not listen to this guy.
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Old 08-18-2012, 01:30 PM   #264
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Implicit odds ITT.


OP, I asked if you had a plan if somebody behind you raised, and you said you "no".

You're going pro, so you should always have a plan. In any given situation, you should know what you want to do if you are called or raised. That way, you are never surprised. It can be hard to think straight when you get check-raised in a big pot.

You're a smart guy, don't forget to utilize your brain fully. If you have a good plan for all streets, you'll out-think the donkeys, and the good players might stay out of your way a bit.

Good luck!
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Old 08-18-2012, 01:40 PM   #265
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Implicit odds ITT.


OP, I asked if you had a plan if somebody behind you raised, and you said you "no".

You're going pro, so you should always have a plan. In any given situation, you should know what you want to do if you are called or raised. That way, you are never surprised. It can be hard to think straight when you get check-raised in a big pot.

You're a smart guy, don't forget to utilize your brain fully. If you have a good plan for all streets, you'll out-think the donkeys, and the good players might stay out of your way a bit.

Good luck!
Thanks for the advice.

I suppose had I been raised I would have folded.

This table was pretty passive so to see a reraise in this spot would have been rare. I would have hated folding 7 handed with TT in that spot but I would have had to do it.
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Old 08-19-2012, 03:43 AM   #266
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Re: Old Guy to Vegas

freaking nits in this thread prof ... you look to your left and see how everyone is reacting.

i'm risking $51 (10BBs effective with the straddle) with 10s. you are WAY ahead of the range of a $1/$2 donkey who has let his stack dribble to $51. he's in the 'double up or go home' mentality.'

the problem with just calling is the people who limped $5 may decide to see a flop ... so i'm raising here. if i run into a bigger hand so be it.

this is why we have an adequate bankroll ... if i'm playing on my last $200 it's a different story.
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Old 08-20-2012, 01:32 PM   #267
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Update.

Played 8 hours last night. Ran down $260. Played too passively for first two hours which got me shortstacked. Added on $100 and again got shortstacked.

Had a chance to book a win on the last hand of the night. Posted that hand over in the llsnl forum. Not sure if I made the right move or not.

It was good to play a nice long session and work on my endurance a bit. The game was good I just missed some opportunities.

I'm going to try and post graphs and ongoing stats as I make this move to Vegas. No games here tonight. One of the things that sucks about playing at a local card house is there are limited opportunities. There was only one table playing last night so it wasn't like I could go to a diff table. That will not be the case in Vegas.

Anyway for all you stat freaks....

Hours: 138
Profit/loss : +3045
BR: $4745
Hourly rate: $22.04

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Old 08-20-2012, 01:49 PM   #268
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Re: Old Guy to Vegas

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Hours: 138
Profit/loss : +3045
BR: $4745
Hourly rate: $22.04
Not to be a skeptic here but in your OP your bankroll was $4000. So you're really only up $745. Let's not inflate the numbers from the start of this thread....:

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RESOURCES

BR: $4000. Not ideal but it is what it is
LE (Living Expenses) 3-4 months, 2 months on credit if needed
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Old 08-20-2012, 01:55 PM   #269
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Not to be a skeptic here but in your OP your bankroll was $4000. So you're really only up $745. Let's not inflate the numbers from the start of this thread....:
Noted. I have withdrawn $2300 from those winnings over the last two year thus reducing my BR to $4745. Sorry for the confusion.
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Old 08-20-2012, 02:05 PM   #270
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Re: Old Guy to Vegas

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Noted. I have withdrawn $2300 from those winnings over the last two year thus reducing my BR to $4745. Sorry for the confusion.
So can we say that right now you are starting with:

BR: $4745

And we can track you using this number?
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