I think I need proper councelling or a serious strategy adjustment. Whoever bare with me, I will be very thankful of them.

Over the past few months, I have experienced what some would call variance.. But at a ridiculous level. I've lost over 15 buy-ins (1.5k) in the past 8 sessions playing 1/2 NL. This is the first time I've ever been on tilt in the year I've been playing poker for. But believe it or not, I'm one of the most feared players at my local casino (Crown). Dealers know me by my name and many of the regulars even leave whenever I take a seat at their table, or they select another table to play on before sitting down. I play LAG and am more a small-baller. Except, I do like huge pots, and I'm over 90% of the time the favourite to win. The funny thing is, my big bluffs work against the better players than the donks. They just cannot fold.

Now, this isn't a story about bad beats. And I don't think bankroll management has anything to do with this (I have over 1700BB btw). I understand variance completely - I learned to count cards in Blackjack from over 2 years of training. I won and lost so much money with Blackjack because I knew about expected value and how I had the edge. And so when I know I'm the favourite in poker, I'm not afraid to lose all my chips. And so I became obsessed with poker when I learned of a possible edge - I read all the poker books I could find and have watched every season of all the major poker TV shows.

I am a consistent winner on online poker. In two days, I managed to build my BR from $25 to $180 on 0.05/0.10c blinds because I am a powerful smallballer. In live poker, I am a master of reading people's reactions, timing, etc. I have never (and I mean never) put my money in and been behind to someone who I thought was bluffing.

Yet I am a consistent loser in live poker. I've studied deep-stacked poker, not shove-on-the-flop poker. I make calls when I have 75% favourite always, and they suck out. I won't list the hands I have played over the last 10 hours of play, because it's just tedious.

I have a friend who is exactly like me - we play in a very similar way, and he has built his bankroll in the thousands playing 1/2. It feels the difference is that he just doesn't get sucked out as much.

My question is then: how do you combat such HUGE downswings with having almost no upswings? And, when is it correct to leave a table? My answer is that I play whenever there are fish at the table, but it doesn't seem to be working for me...

Thanks very much to anyone who can give advice.

Take into consideration it might not be just you as opposed to the people you are playing against. You can be the best player at a table... and the one time you bluff, someone still calls you up because he made a careless call or he simply made the read on you. Sometimes big hands arent good enough, and someone pulls a ridiculous win over you. 'Fish' can sometimes be the worse people to play against if you're a conservative player.. if you push, as most might fold.. they will call on a draw and hit down the river. Theres too many things you have to look out for, everyone plays differently.. maybe you need to start distinguishing the different types of players and play accordingly. Completely editing your ways of playing wouldnt satisfy anything because its not necessarily that you're playing wrong... its that you're not the playing the way you should against the people you're facing. Adapt to the people you play with and understand some people dont have the same thinking as to 'i call when i have this, i fold when i have this' or 'if he bets this much, i fold, if he bets this much.. i call'.

Also maybe your playing style is too predictable.. change it up a little bit without completely changing your style of playing, like i said. My post may have been a little over the place.. but its a touchy topic to try hitting cause its not me.. and its not fair nor is it my place to say 'youre doing something wrong'.

You've been running like the Sun if you think -750bb is a huge downswing.

This seems to explain it... You can't bluff fish because they just call with top pair or anything. My bluffs always seem to be successful against good players as they can see what type of bet it is, a trap, etc. I mean, I can value bet the donks so well because all they do is play their cards, and you just have to think "What is my pair of Kings worth right here?" in their shoes.

So, the strategy adjustment I would have to make is the bluffs against the fish, right? How do you bluff them though? Put them to a test for all their chips? It seems so obvious to me: value town the ones who hold on to top pair, and bluff the good players who can see that it's just obvious I have a big hand.

Or just sit back wait for a hand and stack them, bluffing fish especially in live poker when they call because "what the hell i'm bored i haven't made a pair in one hour" is hugely EV-, at least in bigger pots; obviously there are the weak nits who just fold everything but a hand close to the nuts when the betting goes big. You can definitely pound on them but be aware bluffing fish is a high risk strategy and there's no real metagame value in it because they won't really call you lighter next time unless you play on a real regular basis with them.

is this post a level?

i didnt even knew crown ran 1/2. i thought 2/3 was the lowest and i've never even seen an 'exceptional' player at those stakes.

you've clearly only ever been on heaters and never experinced real downswings.

edit: im sure you've just been on a heater if it's taken you to now to realize you can't bluff fish at those stakes yet your still asking how to do it.

Crown has a horrible cash game structure, the max buy-in is $120 or 60bb, and the rake is pretty large. The players are horrific though. Just play tighter, bluff less and value bet more, there is a bunch of variance in this game and you will get sucked out on but anyone half decent should still be +EV

It also sounds from your post ("regs fear me" "i've never put my money in behind") and from your name being godzac that you feel you're the greatest player on earth ad this attitude won't get you anywhere playing poker...

Indeed - the rake is 10% capped at $15. Perhaps my losses wouldn't be what they are if 10% of all the money taken from pots I won were given back to me. I quit Crown for a while because of this... but I realised I know of no home cash games or any other venues.

I've used to name 'godzac' for over 10 years across every website I use. I'm not conceited and it has nothing to do with my attitude. But in poker, I just get frustrated when people make the wrong decisions and win.

I think, from the suggestions from everyone in this thread, the adjustments I will make are to bluff less and value bet more, i.e. play a little tighter.. but not be predictable.

Heh, the reason I continuously bluff fish is because they never give off fake tells - they're so easy to read and put them on a hand, yet they just make bad calls and cannot fold!

And, unfortunately, I've never been on a heater at Crown. The most I've walked away with (sadly) is +540 in a night.. 350 of it was from a hand where it came K,J,10, I had A,Q and FOUR people went all-in before me. That was a night to remember. I'm sure a winning streak is bound to happen if I adjust my strategy.

A big thank you goes out to all who helped me.

Generally when people say things like "I play LAG" and "90% of the time I'm the favorite to win", it is very likely that they aren't good at poker because good poker players don't think that way. They don't play one style - they adapt to the table and stack dynamics. They also don't get it in as a favorite anywhere near 90% of the time (you don't either and I'll bet any amount you want on this).

You've played eight sessions, which is what, 300 hands at most? All you're seeing is the short term result, the variance. If you were up 15 buy-ins instead of down you wouldn't be making this thread even though it's the exact same situation. You claim to understand variance "completely" which is utter nonsense as there is no one person on the planet who fully understands deviation from expectation.

You should stop blaming your losses on variance, suck-outs, whatever and just focus on making profitable plays. You say it has nothing to do with your attitude but actually your attitude is a huge factor; getting upset when people play bad and win makes literally zero sense. Do you see why?

Cliffs: You're not good at poker, so stop acting like you are. Quit whining about bad players. Put in a lot of work away from the tables. Most importantly, get real.

Can you not give me any advice? The only "advice" you gave me is to "focus on making profitable plays" and to "put a lot of work away from the tables". I'm working on a strategy adjustment which other plays have suggested I do.

You're right when you say if I was up 15 buy-ins, I wouldn't make this post. Of course I wouldn't - I'd believe I'd have a winning strategy unless I knew I was making bad decisions. I made this thread because I couldn't understand why I was losing - and now I do.

And what do you mean no one understands variance? Of course variance can be understood. You can model 10s of thousands of BJ hands and understand the changes in someone's bankroll. So what do you mean exactly by this?

Thanks...

its called variance. ull win some ull lose some. dont forget all the times u win, it happens. theres lucky streaks and unlucky streaks.

To beat fish, you have to be able to think like fish. You can understand more theory than anyone else at the table but still constantly be donking off chips to them. What makes sense to them might be idiotic to you, but you have to be able to figure out how they think.

Fish raises your cbet on an A high dry board. You think, wtf? He's not repping anything. He must be weak and making an information bet, so I'll re-raise him off his hand. Problem is, the fish thinks his top pair with a 9 kicker is good and won't fold no matter what.

Fish overshoves 3 times the pot size when the board is dry, you have the third of fourth nuts. You think: Why would he be playing this fast? I doubt he has the nuts so I'll call. Problem: Fish don't know how to extract value. All they know is that they have the nuts and they want their whole stack in the middle.

Fish calls your flop bet and min-raises your turn bet when a strange straight draw hits. Let's say the flop was K56 and the turn was a 3. You think: What could he possibly have? What idiot would play 74? Answer: fish

Fish tries to slowplay a set on a draw-heavy flop. Flop comes Ah9d8d, and you have TPTK. He flats your cbet so you doubt he has anything super strong or he'd raise to protect. Turn bricks with a blank, let's say a 2. You bet again and shoves. You think: If he had anything strong on the flop, he would've raise then to protect against draws. But fish don't think that way. He's thinking "This guy is always betting out on me on the flop and the turn. I'll just slowplay my set because I know he's betting again later."

I'm probably being leveled by someones gimmick account but I'll bite anway...

If you were up 15 buy-ins after 8 hours of live play how could you possibly assume you have a winning strategy? How can you say you understand variance yet make statements like this? 8 hours of live play would not give you any information about your ability as a player. If all these clowns are sucking out against you I'm sure some of them are big winners over an eight hour sample despite being losing players long-term.

Poker is not blackjack, and I'm not sure why you keep bringing blackjack up because it's a completely different game. Poker has many, many more variables that further obfuscate an already unclear understanding of how your results can deviate from EV.

And there are the types of fish who are more intimidated by all-in bets than huge bets, because they don't believe their hand is worth risking all of their money. I'm not saying that I try to use this as often as I can, but many of the bluffs into big pots require that you push all your chips in (which looks strong to them) instead of making bets which look slightly weaker.

I mean... am I wrong?

Here's a good example:
This tight guy the other night raised preflop with J,J. I called from late position with 9,10. Out comes K,2,5. He immediately checked. I knew he bets his strong hands, so I put him on a pretty big pair (afraid of the king), so I bet to represent the king. He called. Turn is an 8. He check/calls. I knew he had QQ or lower by now. I then bet a huge percentage of the pot on the river when another small card hits. He thinks for a while and calls, saying "That was a good bet, you almost got me to fold".
What did I do wrong? Should I have overbet the pot even though it is extremely risky play? It must have been so obvious I had the king! He never looked at me once, so he mustn't have been thinking "This guy is up to something"...